geowatch · Polymarket wallet 0x5645…5d21

+$4,846 lifetime P&L · 66.7% win rate · 279 resolved markets · 0x56456dff3a59eec8acf29806ef899ee923585d21

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Wallet snapshot

geowatch has made 912 trades on Polymarket across 362 markets, $217K in volume. Most of it is in sports (39%) and geopolitics (29%). On 279 resolved markets the win rate is 66.7%, lifetime P&L +$4,846. It holds 71 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?". Last trade: Nov 2, 2026.

Largest open positions

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?No · $2,001 · 95¢ → 93¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes · $1,797 · 97¢ → 87¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?No · $1,259 · 80¢ → 97¢
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?No · $1,201 · 72¢ → 87¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?No · $1,075 · 83¢ → 90¢
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? No · $1,046 · 92¢ → 97¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $1,021 · 73¢ → 75¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?No · $1,005 · 93¢ → 94¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No · $1,002 · 95¢ → 95¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes · $995 · 92¢ → 92¢

Latest closed positions

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 26-November 1?No · +$2 · Nov 2, 2026
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in November?Yes · +$7 · Nov 2, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No · +$22 · Nov 1, 2026
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?No · +$216 · Nov 1, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No · +$599 · Nov 1, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?No · +$1 · Nov 1, 2026
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

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