229 days left
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?
YES Price
71¢
71% implied
NO Price
29¢
29% implied
Volume
$40.0K
431 trades
Smart Whales
18
of 152 traders · 1 on both sides
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
4 MARKETS · $81.8K MATCHEDHover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
17 YESvs2 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 71¢
YES 90%NO 11%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 71¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 52% YES by dollars · 15 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 81%· net of hedges
$2.8K
$899
+35 new YES · 10 smart whales+19 new NO · 3 smart whales
$576 bought on both sides by the same 10 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘsplit 3 · 4
YES 3NO 4one dot = one wallet
3 wallets on YES
4 wallets on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 40h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$0 of $3.0K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $1.6K·NO $1.4KYES Team
Total Invested
$1.7K
Avg Win Rate
78.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$152(-9.1%)
Whales
17
A
aviato🥇
Entry 93¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$930
Win Rate
91.4%
Position P&L
$-209
$-209INV $930 · WR 91.4%
E
engagegressor🥈
Entry 84¢·208.6 shares
Invested
$175
Win Rate
58.3%
Position P&L
$-24
$-24INV $175 · WR 58.3%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥉
Entry 83¢·200 shares
Invested
$165
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
$-21
$-21INV $165 · WR 57.1%
B
BAO95889
Entry 36¢·300 shares
Invested
$108
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
+$105
+$105INV $108 · WR 60.2%
X
X-Rabbit.Sezu
Entry 72¢·110 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
65.7%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $80 · WR 65.7%
P
papaseaon
Entry 87¢·84.3 shares
Invested
$73
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $73 · WR 75.0%
A
Anon78996
Entry 61¢·73.6 shares
Invested
$45
Win Rate
58.6%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $45 · WR 58.6%
K
Kronk1
Entry 79¢·37.3 shares
Invested
$29
Win Rate
58.5%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $29 · WR 58.5%
S
Spherical-Fringe◆Proven
Entry 77¢·19.7 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
65.8%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $15 · WR 65.8%
I
Irritating-Hierarchy
Entry 73¢·20 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
84.0%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $15 · WR 84.0%
Showing top 10 of 17
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.4K
Avg Win Rate
74.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.1K(+76.5%)
Whales
2
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 593ms