Mr.Frog🐸 · Polymarket wallet 0xb1fe…423a

Wallet snapshot

Mr.Frog🐸 has made 16,966 trades on Polymarket across 2,132 markets, $1.2M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (34%) and politics (17%). On 1,992 resolved markets the win rate is 42.3%, lifetime P&L +$4,959. It holds 61 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?". Last trade: Nov 13, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No · $821 · 18¢ → 31¢
• Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?No · $505 · 49¢ → 100¢
• Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No · $492 · 55¢ → 62¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?No · $359 · 14¢ → 21¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?No · $345 · 28¢ → 64¢
• Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?No · $286 · 65¢ → 76¢
• Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?No · $263 · 52¢ → 52¢
• Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?No · $259 · 23¢ → 40¢
• Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?No · $208 · 23¢ → 26¢
• Will there be 3 or more government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?Yes · $185 · 14¢ → 16¢

Latest closed positions

• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?No · -$61 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?No · -$97 · Nov 13, 2026
• Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?No · +$32 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Yes · -$32 · Nov 13, 2026
• Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Yes · -$2 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in November 2026?No · +$21 · Nov 13, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.