Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$15.6K
324 trades
Smart Whales
31
of 101 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $17.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026←
0¢+19¢$15.6K6/25by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026←+19¢0¢
$15.6K6/25
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
14¢−14¢$1590/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−14¢14¢
$1590/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
23¢—$00/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—23¢
$00/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$800/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$800/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
6 YESvs25 NO
19%81%
81% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $373 is directional: YES $373·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$516
Avg Win Rate
59.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$514(-99.7%)
Whales
6
F
flawfence◆Proven🥇
Entry 8¢·4,244.1 shares
Invested
$354
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
$-354
$-354INV $354 · WR 55.4%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈hedged
Entry 51¢·181.4 shares·also $814 on NO
Invested
$93
Win Rate
67.4%
Position P&L
$-93
$-93INV $93 · WR 67.4%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥉
Entry 8¢·617.8 shares
Invested
$47
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-47
$-47INV $47 · WR 73.2%
M
Miojinho
Entry 3¢·620 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
61.4%
Position P&L
$-19
$-19INV $19 · WR 61.4%
M
m3t3hedged
Entry 9¢·10 shares·also $9 on NO
Invested
$1
Win Rate
70.9%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 70.9%
Showing top 5 of 6
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.4K
Avg Win Rate
77.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.5K(+43.2%)
Whales
25
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇hedged
Entry 89¢·910.6 shares·also $93 on YES
Invested
$814
Win Rate
67.4%
Position P&L
+$97
+$97INV $814 · WR 67.4%
R
russell110320🥈
Entry 92¢·770 shares
Invested
$708
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$62
+$62INV $708 · WR 67.5%
D
donthackme🥉
Entry 80¢·742.8 shares
Invested
$596
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$146
+$146INV $596 · WR 87.7%
N
northdrawer
Entry 61¢·335 shares
Invested
$203
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$132
+$132INV $203 · WR 87.7%
A
Anon321321
Entry 36¢·380.6 shares
Invested
$137
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
+$244
+$244INV $137 · WR 86.3%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 80¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$131
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$34
+$34INV $131 · WR 85.9%
E
e46m3
Entry 77¢·164 shares
Invested
$126
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $126 · WR 79.6%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 79¢·142 shares
Invested
$112
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $112 · WR 89.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 76¢·133.4 shares
Invested
$102
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$32
+$32INV $102 · WR 72.2%
P
plainfolder
Entry 83¢·78 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$13
+$13INV $65 · WR 86.0%
Showing top 10 of 25
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