107 days left
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
YES Price
56¢
56% implied
NO Price
44¢
44% implied
Volume
$62.8K
1,011 trades
Smart Whales
34
of 288 traders · 1 on both sides
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
5 MARKETS · $751.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
19 YESvs16 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 56¢
YES 54%NO 46%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 56¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 28% YES by dollars · 12 YES vs 12 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 58%· net of hedges
$2.0K
$1.5K
+33 new YES · 10 smart whales+19 new NO · 2 smart whales
$226 bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ6 of 9 on YES
YES 6NO 3one dot = one wallet
6 wallets on YES
3 wallets on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 35h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$782 of $8.7K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $2.2K·NO $5.7KYES Team
Total Invested
$2.8K
Avg Win Rate
63.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$626(+22.5%)
Whales
19
C
Car🥇
Entry 63¢·1,796 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
64.9%
Position P&L
$-113
$-113INV $1.1K · WR 64.9%
T
TBill1🥈hedged
Entry 31¢·1,266.3 shares·also $520 on NO
Invested
$391
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
+$286
+$286INV $391 · WR 55.3%
O
Optimus-◆Proven🥉
Entry 34¢·877 shares
Invested
$294
Win Rate
61.6%
Position P&L
+$205
+$205INV $294 · WR 61.6%
S
SeniorLaghetto
Entry 48¢·423 shares
Invested
$203
Win Rate
67.3%
Position P&L
+$44
+$44INV $203 · WR 67.3%
Z
Zaratustra
Entry 48¢·350 shares
Invested
$168
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
+$28
+$28INV $168 · WR 61.2%
P
potatobrahh
Entry 39¢·308.5 shares
Invested
$120
Win Rate
57.6%
Position P&L
+$45
+$45INV $120 · WR 57.6%
H
Hot-Skull◆Proven
Entry 58¢·170.7 shares
Invested
$99
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $99 · WR 71.6%
M
Malganishedged
Entry 31¢·235.6 shares·also $152 on NO
Invested
$74
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$57
+$57INV $74 · WR 73.2%
C
CosmooKramer
Entry 50¢·101 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $50 · WR 68.8%
M
Monumental-Injustice
Entry 49¢·100 shares
Invested
$49
Win Rate
70.6%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $49 · WR 70.6%
Showing top 10 of 19
NO Team
Total Invested
$6.7K
Avg Win Rate
67.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.7K(-25.8%)
Whales
16
D
DerDon◆Proven🥇
Entry 64¢·3,345.2 shares
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
$-688
$-688INV $2.1K · WR 56.6%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥈
Entry 71¢·1,994 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
$-606
$-606INV $1.4K · WR 57.1%
U
Utoya🥉
Entry 68¢·1,500 shares
Invested
$1.0K
Win Rate
90.3%
Position P&L
$-328
$-328INV $1.0K · WR 90.3%
D
DontTrustMe◆Proven
Entry 61¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$611
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
$-146
$-146INV $611 · WR 87.3%
T
TBill1hedged
Entry 52¢·1,002.4 shares·also $391 on YES
Invested
$520
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $520 · WR 55.3%
E
e46m3
Entry 31¢·1,366.3 shares
Invested
$424
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$184
+$184INV $424 · WR 79.2%
O
Olcan
Entry 44¢·641.7 shares
Invested
$282
Win Rate
76.5%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $282 · WR 76.5%
M
Malganishedged
Entry 64¢·235.7 shares·also $74 on YES
Invested
$152
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-47
$-47INV $152 · WR 73.2%
J
Jesetrading◆Proven
Entry 63¢·160 shares
Invested
$101
Win Rate
67.7%
Position P&L
$-27
$-27INV $101 · WR 67.7%
B
balthazarhedged
Entry 65¢·63 shares·also $31 on YES
Invested
$41
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $41 · WR 71.9%
Showing top 10 of 16
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