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Geopolitics49 days left

Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
31¢
31% implied
NO Price
69¢
69% implied
Volume
$58.2K
191 trades
Smart Whales
24
of 119 traders · 2 on both sides

Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?

3 MARKETS · $221.4K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

4 YESvs22 NO
15%85%
85% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 4% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 20 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 80%· net of hedges
+57 new YES$12.6K+78 new NO$31.3K
$12.5K of this was bought on both sides by the same 21 buyers — left out of momentum
7 smart whales26 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis · 49% of the money is not a bet
$7.7K of $15.7K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $328·NO $7.7K
YES Team
Total Invested
$4.2K
Avg Win Rate
70.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$356(-8.6%)
Whales
4
P
Parz1vaI🥇hedged
Entry 34¢·11,410.1 shares·also $5.6K on NO
$-359INV $3.8K · WR 71.7%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥈
Entry 30¢·860.2 shares
+$4INV $258 · WR 57.1%
O
oiboy69🥉
Entry 31¢·220 shares
$-1INV $68 · WR 75.0%
5
0x54498e4c...hedged
Entry 35¢·12.9 shares·also $3 on NO
$-1INV $5 · WR 55.4%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 19% YES: Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire…