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Geopolitics48 days left

Russia x Ukraine major prisoner exchange by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
85¢
85% implied
NO Price
15¢
15% implied
Volume
$2.3K
98 trades
Smart Whales
11
of 58 traders

Russia x Ukraine major prisoner exchange by...?

2 MARKETS · $2.9K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

9 YESvs2 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 85¢
YES 82%NO 18%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 85¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 96% YES by dollars · 9 YES vs 2 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 88%· net of hedges
+16 new YES · 7 smart whales+17 new NO · 1 smart whale
$39 bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ2 of 3 on NO
YES 1NO 2one dot = one wallet
1 wallet on YES
2 wallets on NO

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 37h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $648 is directional: YES $623·NO $26
YES Team
Total Invested
$623
Avg Win Rate
70.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$29(+4.7%)
Whales
9
C
CattailProven🥇
Entry 82¢·434.9 shares
+$11INV $357 · WR 64.4%
L
lottonakamoto🥈
Entry 75¢·100 shares
+$10INV $75 · WR 71.0%
G
gotonetry33🥉
Entry 87¢·71.1 shares
$-2INV $62 · WR 80.7%
I
iraa3
Entry 82¢·60 shares
+$1INV $49 · WR 82.9%
I
Ideal-Arch
Entry 83¢·30 shares
+$0INV $25 · WR 89.0%
O
osmych
Entry 62¢·33.8 shares
+$8INV $21 · WR 85.0%
O
oiboy69
Entry 76¢·20 shares
+$2INV $15 · WR 75.0%
B
big-bird1
Entry 88¢·16.7 shares
$-1INV $15 · WR 69.2%
B
BoberKurwaYaPerdole
Entry 76¢·5 shares
+$0INV $4 · WR 64.2%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 82% YES: Russia x Ukraine major prisoner…