Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be under 5.3?
YES Price
55¢
55% implied
NO Price
45¢
45% implied
Volume
$3.8K
198 trades
Smart Whales
21
of 75 traders
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 4, 2026?
6 MARKETS · $10.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4
1¢−1¢$7050/4Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4−1¢1¢
$7050/4
Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6
3¢+30¢$4.3K1/2Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6+30¢3¢
$4.3K1/2
Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8
5¢−5¢$4850/3Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8−5¢5¢
$4850/3
Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0
1¢+49¢$3092/2Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0+49¢1¢
$3092/2
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs18 NO
14%86%
86% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 0% YES by dollars · 0 YES vs 11 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 52%· net of hedges
+15 new YES$760+41 new NO$829
$166 of this was bought on both sides by the same 6 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales16 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $135 is directional: YES $0·NO $135YES Team
Total Invested
$6
Avg Win Rate
59.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$4(+61.2%)
Whales
3
L
Limping-Baggie-Technique🥇
Entry 46¢·7.1 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $3 · WR 59.6%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ash🥈
Entry 46¢·5 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $2 · WR 59.6%
C
Comfortable-Sandwich🥉hedged
Entry 6¢·5.1 shares·also $1 on NO
Invested
$0
Win Rate
59.3%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $0 · WR 59.3%
NO Team
Total Invested
$398
Avg Win Rate
81.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$193(-48.3%)
Whales
18
G
god83743894🥇
Entry 74¢·245 shares
Invested
$181
Win Rate
85.6%
Position P&L
$-70
$-70INV $181 · WR 85.6%
O
Our-Sherry🥈
Entry 99¢·93.7 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
73.0%
Position P&L
$-90
$-90INV $93 · WR 73.0%
N
northdrawer🥉
Entry 97¢·60 shares
Invested
$58
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-31
$-31INV $58 · WR 87.6%
G
glm404.fund
Entry 20¢·110 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$28
+$28INV $22 · WR 85.8%
S
Shadowy-Gasp
Entry 82¢·6.1 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
82.7%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 82.7%
H
Humiliating-System
Entry 77¢·6.5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 77.4%
A
Adept-Mouser
Entry 82¢·6.1 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
72.3%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 72.3%
D
Doting-Hedge
Entry 87¢·5.7 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 87.6%
A
Adept-Pencil
Entry 87¢·5.7 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
83.1%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 83.1%
G
Glossy-Ephemera
Entry 77¢·6.5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
67.2%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 67.2%
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