Geopolitics20 days left
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
YES Price
48¢
48% implied
NO Price
52¢
52% implied
Volume
$13.5K
319 trades
Smart Whales
15
of 94 traders
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
5 MARKETS · $36.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31
0¢+33¢$4.1K5/10Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31+33¢0¢
$4.1K5/10
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31
22¢+10¢$5.8K7/15Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31+10¢22¢
$5.8K7/15
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31←
48¢−19¢$13.5K4/10Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31←−19¢48¢
$13.5K4/10
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs10 NO
33%67%
67% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 96%· net of hedges
+8 new YES$343+16 new NO$4.1K
$364 of this was bought on both sides by the same 6 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $386 is directional: YES $384·NO $2YES Team
Total Invested
$1.8K
Avg Win Rate
63.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$375(-21.2%)
Whales
5
R
RememberAmalek🥇hedged
Entry 73¢·1,570 shares·also $1.2K on NO
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
64.4%
Position P&L
$-400
$-400INV $1.1K · WR 64.4%
S
Shy-Note◆Proven🥈
Entry 42¢·657.3 shares
Invested
$276
Win Rate
56.8%
Position P&L
+$36
+$36INV $276 · WR 56.8%
B
balthazar🥉
Entry 43¢·380 shares
Invested
$163
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $163 · WR 72.2%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Entry 50¢·215 shares
Invested
$109
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $109 · WR 57.7%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedhedged
Entry 68¢·113.2 shares·also $62 on NO
Invested
$77
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-23
$-23INV $77 · WR 55.3%
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.4K
Avg Win Rate
67.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$27(-1.9%)
Whales
10
R
RememberAmalek🥇hedged
Entry 54¢·2,175.3 shares·also $1.1K on YES
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
64.4%
Position P&L
$-23
$-23INV $1.2K · WR 64.4%
D
donthackme🥈
Entry 53¢·157.6 shares
Invested
$83
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $83 · WR 87.7%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed🥉hedged
Entry 55¢·113.2 shares·also $77 on YES
Invested
$62
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $62 · WR 55.3%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 50¢·100 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $50 · WR 88.7%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 59¢·74 shares
Invested
$44
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $44 · WR 85.9%
D
Deserted-Surroundings
Entry 50¢·23.4 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
73.3%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $12 · WR 73.3%
G
god83743894
Entry 58¢·20 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $12 · WR 85.7%
H
Hasty-Worker
Entry 50¢·20.3 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
59.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $10 · WR 59.9%
L
luciebot
Entry 50¢·16 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
83.0%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $8 · WR 83.0%
3
0x377fbb01...
Entry 49¢·4.1 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $2 · WR 55.2%
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 651ms