Geopolitics5 days left

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

4¢

4% implied

NO Price

96¢

96% implied

Volume

$1.9K

98 trades

Smart Whales

9

of 47 traders

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?

5 MARKETS · $10.8K MATCHED

Smart Money

Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4

35¢+23¢$2.6K7/5

Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4+23¢35¢

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4

34¢+21¢$2.0K6/5

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4+21¢34¢

Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4

6¢+40¢$2.1K6/7

Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4+40¢6¢

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4←

4¢+29¢$1.9K3/6

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4←+29¢4¢

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4

17¢+27¢$2.1K4/5

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4+27¢17¢

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Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs6 NO

33%67%

67% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 0 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 94%· net of hedges

+9 new YES$47+7 new NO$476

$37 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum

1 smart whale0 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $40 is directional: YES $40·NO $0

YES Team

Total Invested

$40

Avg Win Rate

59.4%

Aggregate P&L

-$5(-11.9%)

Whales

3

Started-with-20-USD🥇

Entry 13¢·207.1 shares

$-6INV $26 · WR 59.0%

Entry 9¢·134 shares

+$1INV $12 · WR 58.0%

itsjustcheddar🥉

Entry 6¢·22.2 shares

+$1INV $1 · WR 81.0%

NO Team

Total Invested

$718

Avg Win Rate

76.3%

Aggregate P&L

+$654(+91.1%)

Whales

6

melchior1248🥇

Entry 50¢·820 shares

+$374INV $410 · WR 68.7%

Entry 50¢·270.8 shares

+$123INV $135 · WR 86.8%

glm404.fund🥉

Entry 50¢·234.5 shares

+$107INV $117 · WR 85.8%

Entry 50¢·80 shares

+$36INV $40 · WR 87.5%

Entry 50¢·20 shares

+$9INV $10 · WR 89.3%

Entry 50¢·10 shares

+$5INV $5 · WR 83.3%

Smart Whale Trades

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