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Economics412 days left

US recession by end of 2027?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
28¢
28% implied
NO Price
72¢
72% implied
Volume
$23.8K
481 trades
Smart Whales
20
of 140 traders

US recession by end of 2027?

2 MARKETS · $2.50M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

9 YESvs11 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 28¢
YES 45%NO 55%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 28¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 30% YES by dollars · 8 YES vs 11 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
In-form wallets ⓘsplit 3 · 2
YES 3NO 2one dot = one wallet
3 wallets on YES
2 wallets on NO

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 3 days ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $5.4K is directional: YES $1.6K·NO $3.8K
YES Team
Total Invested
$1.6K
Avg Win Rate
70.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$267(-16.6%)
Whales
9
C
Copezilla🥇
Entry 34¢·3,307.2 shares
$-190INV $1.1K · WR 70.1%
D
Donkov🥈
Entry 32¢·820 shares
$-34INV $263 · WR 69.4%
I
iraa3🥉
Entry 35¢·300.1 shares
$-20INV $104 · WR 82.9%
S
Stormy-Tower
Entry 34¢·160 shares
$-10INV $55 · WR 63.0%
T
trzorira2
Entry 33¢·100 shares
$-5INV $33 · WR 82.7%
D
dandakao
Entry 36¢·85.7 shares
$-7INV $31 · WR 66.7%
6
0x688ec919...
Entry 32¢·6.6 shares
$-0INV $2 · WR 77.8%
S
skybuyer24
Entry 77¢·2.1 shares
$-1INV $2 · WR 70.1%
T
trerira
Entry 34¢·1.5 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 88.8%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 45% YES: US recession by end of 2027