Rumpelstiltskin · Polymarket wallet 0xfb1b…a11d

Wallet snapshot

Rumpelstiltskin has made 3,161 trades on Polymarket across 234 markets, $375K in volume. Most of it is in tech (82%). On 203 resolved markets the win rate is 56.7%, lifetime P&L +$26K. It holds 29 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?". Last trade: Oct 16, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes · $5,193 · 68¢ → 71¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?No · $2,992 · 91¢ → 100¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes · $2,698 · 52¢ → 28¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes · $1,219 · 77¢ → 85¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes · $1,033 · 40¢ → 40¢
• Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?No · $975 · 80¢ → 96¢
• Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No · $971 · 68¢ → 87¢
• Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?No · $960 · 93¢ → 96¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No · $894 · 73¢ → 73¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No · $797 · 50¢ → 55¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?No · +$120 · Oct 16, 2026
• Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Yes · +$58 · Oct 16, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Yes · -$31 · Oct 15, 2026
• Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes · -$27 · Oct 13, 2026
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes · +$72 · Oct 13, 2026
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$80 · Oct 13, 2026
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.