Polymarket wallet 0xf15c…78cc

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0xf15c…78cc has made 4,654 trades on Polymarket across 189 markets, $54K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (48%) and sports (30%). On 145 resolved markets the win rate is 58.6%, lifetime P&L -$39. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?". Last trade: Oct 19, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?No · $58 · 93¢ → 91¢
• Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No · $40 · 82¢ → 83¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes · $38 · 88¢ → 87¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes · $26 · 73¢ → 75¢
• Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No · $20 · 87¢ → 89¢
• Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No · $15 · 95¢ → 96¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes · $15 · 31¢ → 28¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes · $10 · 12¢ → 12¢

Latest closed positions

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Yes · +$5 · Oct 18, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes · +$2 · Oct 15, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · +$72 · Oct 14, 2026
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes · -$2 · Oct 10, 2026
• Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No · +$1 · Oct 8, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes · -$4 · Oct 6, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.