arcanecapital · Polymarket wallet 0xae8d…fa5d

Wallet snapshot

arcanecapital has made 604 trades on Polymarket across 148 markets, $5,221 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (41%) and tech (11%). On 111 resolved markets the win rate is 62.2%, lifetime P&L +$81. It holds 18 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 11, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $67 · 83¢ → 84¢
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?No · $58 · 93¢ → 96¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $55 · 66¢ → 89¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No · $54 · 86¢ → 91¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No · $51 · 61¢ → 85¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No · $49 · 89¢ → 98¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?No · $35 · 40¢ → 87¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes · $34 · 70¢ → 85¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No · $25 · 82¢ → 85¢
• Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?No · $20 · 71¢ → 78¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?No · +$17 · Oct 11, 2026
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?No · +$4 · Oct 1, 2026
• Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?No · +$6 · Sep 16, 2026
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No · +$2 · Sep 14, 2026
• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes · -$0 · Sep 11, 2026
• US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Yes · -$9 · Sep 10, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.