Careless-Hearthside · Polymarket wallet 0xae3f…5d56

Wallet snapshot

Careless-Hearthside has made 1,455 trades on Polymarket across 293 markets, $28K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (40%) and politics (32%). On 266 resolved markets the win rate is 72.9%. It holds 11 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?". Last trade: Oct 2, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $729 · 92¢ → 91¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo · $226 · 93¢ → 91¢
• Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No · $75 · 88¢ → 97¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · $37 · 57¢ → 54¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes · $25 · 30¢ → 17¢
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No · $18 · 73¢ → 74¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes · $14 · 69¢ → 96¢
• Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes · $10 · 58¢ → 26¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · $5 · 64¢ → 13¢
• Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes · $3 · 5¢ → 3¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No · +$11 · Oct 5, 2026
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes · +$54 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No · +$2 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes · +$24 · Sep 21, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No · +$7 · Sep 9, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No · +$1 · Sep 8, 2026

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