Gaflun · Polymarket wallet 0x6e90…3d4f

Wallet snapshot

Gaflun has made 52 trades on Polymarket across 36 markets, $59 in volume. Most of it is in politics (33%) and geopolitics (28%). On 24 resolved markets the win rate is 87.5%, lifetime P&L +$5. It holds 12 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No · $5 · 96¢ → 99¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $5 · 91¢ → 92¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · $2 · 89¢ → 97¢
• Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?No · $2 · 79¢ → 90¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $2 · 62¢ → 94¢
• Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes · $1 · 75¢ → 88¢
• Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?No · $1 · 89¢ → 97¢
• Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2027?Yes · $1 · 95¢ → 97¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?No · $1 · 90¢ → 92¢
• Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Yes · $1 · 17¢ → 11¢

Latest closed positions

• Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$0 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$0 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes · -$0 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No · +$0 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No · +$0 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes · +$0 · Sep 21, 2026

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