Vanquish · Polymarket wallet 0x4baf…5fdf

Wallet snapshot

Vanquish has made 2,603 trades on Polymarket across 288 markets, $1.0M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (34%) and politics (24%). On 281 resolved markets the win rate is 82.9%, lifetime P&L +$87. It holds 5 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?". Last trade: Nov 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $18K · 94¢ → 100¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes · $8,921 · 82¢ → 100¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No · $5,745 · 92¢ → 100¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes · $1,098 · 88¢ → 6¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes · $5 · 85¢ → 91¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?No · +$821 · Nov 1, 2026
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?No · +$2 · Nov 1, 2026
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?No · +$76 · Nov 1, 2026
• Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?No · +$8 · Oct 30, 2026
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?No · +$439 · Oct 16, 2026
• Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?No · +$227 · Oct 8, 2026
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.