Red-Mug-Neuropsychiatry · Polymarket wallet 0x498d…ddd4

Wallet snapshot

Red-Mug-Neuropsychiatry has made 359 trades on Polymarket across 23 markets, $219K in volume. Most of it is in politics (78%) and geopolitics (13%). On 11 resolved markets the win rate is 63.6%, lifetime P&L +$898. It holds 12 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?". Last trade: Oct 31, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes · $21K · 14¢ → 7¢
• Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No · $9,997 · 59¢ → 67¢
• Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes · $8,650 · 11¢ → 9¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes · $8,025 · 54¢ → 54¢
• Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes · $3,105 · 59¢ → 68¢
• Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes · $2,594 · 94¢ → 100¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes · $2,567 · 34¢ → 36¢
• Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes · $2,442 · 52¢ → 79¢
• Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No · $1,986 · 30¢ → 38¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes · $1,890 · 91¢ → 95¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No · +$92 · Oct 31, 2026
• Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?No · +$1,023 · Oct 31, 2026
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No · -$12K · Oct 31, 2026
• Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes · -$599 · Oct 29, 2026
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes · +$6,797 · Oct 26, 2026
• Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes · -$3,834 · Oct 26, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.