Politics14 days left
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
YES Price
10¢
10% implied
NO Price
90¢
90% implied
Volume
$36.9K
829 trades
Smart Whales
51
of 137 traders · 1 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
8 MARKETS · $486.1K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
16 YESvs36 NO
31%69%
69% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 95% YES by dollars · 11 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 76%· net of hedges
+17 new YES$1.0K+20 new NO$3.1K
$91 of this was bought on both sides by the same 3 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales5 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$7 of $2.9K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $2.7K·NO $144YES Team
Total Invested
$2.9K
Avg Win Rate
71.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$56(+1.9%)
Whales
16
B
balthazar🥇
Entry 11¢·21,677.7 shares
Invested
$2.4K
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$111
+$111INV $2.4K · WR 72.2%
S
sdhyky🥈hedged
Entry 78¢·160 shares·also $34 on NO
Invested
$125
Win Rate
59.4%
Position P&L
$-109
$-109INV $125 · WR 59.4%
D
DerDon◆Proven🥉
Entry 9¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$90
Win Rate
56.5%
Position P&L
+$25
+$25INV $90 · WR 56.5%
Q
QMG-CORE
Entry 11¢·500 shares
Invested
$56
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $56 · WR 81.2%
D
donthackme
Entry 11¢·440.8 shares
Invested
$49
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $49 · WR 87.7%
N
neverhackme
Entry 11¢·316.6 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
75.8%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $35 · WR 75.8%
T
TheOne777◆Proven
Entry 8¢·440.3 shares
Invested
$34
Win Rate
75.7%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $34 · WR 75.7%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 9¢·300 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $27 · WR 70.5%
M
melchior1248
Entry 11¢·140 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $15 · WR 69.2%
S
Sturdy-Thrush
Entry 11¢·100 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $11 · WR 74.1%
Showing top 10 of 16
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.8K
Avg Win Rate
79.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.9K(+50.1%)
Whales
36
Q
qwen4.1.fund🥇
Entry 51¢·1,461.4 shares
Invested
$743
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$572
+$572INV $743 · WR 85.9%
G
graynotebook19🥈
Entry 53¢·640 shares
Invested
$342
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$234
+$234INV $342 · WR 89.3%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 53¢·635.7 shares
Invested
$335
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$237
+$237INV $335 · WR 79.6%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 90¢·288 shares
Invested
$261
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $261 · WR 88.2%
L
Limping-Baggie-Technique
Entry 89¢·258.4 shares
Invested
$229
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $229 · WR 59.8%
G
gmgmgmgmg
Entry 89¢·207.1 shares
Invested
$185
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $185 · WR 79.2%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 50¢·274.2 shares
Invested
$137
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
+$110
+$110INV $137 · WR 59.8%
G
god83743894
Entry 88¢·140 shares
Invested
$123
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $123 · WR 85.7%
F
fourcoin15m
Entry 89¢·135.8 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
84.5%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $121 · WR 84.5%
S
Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat
Entry 89¢·134.9 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $121 · WR 59.8%
Showing top 10 of 36
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