55 days left

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

57¢

57% implied

NO Price

43¢

43% implied

Volume

$381

20 trades

Smart Whales

of 16 traders

November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

12 MARKETS · $22.7K MATCHED

Smart Money

by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026

2¢−2¢$2.5K0/4

by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026−2¢2¢

$2.5K0/4

by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026

2¢−2¢$4270/1

by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−2¢2¢

$4270/1

by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026

3¢−3¢$3550/1

by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026−3¢3¢

$3550/1

by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026

3¢−3¢$3330/3

by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026−3¢3¢

$3330/3

by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026

5¢−5¢$1000/1

by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026−5¢5¢

$1000/1

by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026

93¢−47¢$8.7K6/7

by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026−47¢93¢

$8.7K6/7

by less than 1.35ºC in November 2026

3¢−3¢$2.2K0/5

by less than 1.35ºC in November 2026−3¢3¢

$2.2K0/5

by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in November 2026

3¢−3¢$3360/8

by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in November 2026−3¢3¢

$3360/8

by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026

6¢−6¢$4.6K0/8

by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in November 2026−6¢6¢

$4.6K0/8

by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in November 2026

18¢−18¢$1.7K0/7

by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in November 2026−18¢18¢

$1.7K0/7

by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026

20¢−20¢$1.0K0/7

by between 1.50ºC and 1.54ºC in November 2026−20¢20¢

$1.0K0/7

by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026←

57¢−19¢$3813/5

by more than 1.54ºC in November 2026←−19¢57¢

$3813/5

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Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs5 NO

38%63%

63% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 0 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowYES momentum 68%· net of hedges

+2 new YES$18+2 new NO$9

$4 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum

1 smart whale0 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $32 is directional: YES $32·NO $0

YES Team

Total Invested

$72

Avg Win Rate

62.7%

Aggregate P&L

+$30(+41.0%)

Whales

gopfan2Proven🥇

Entry 43¢·94.6 shares

+$14INV $40 · WR 60.5%

+$16INV $23 · WR 68.6%

NO Team

Total Invested

$66

Avg Win Rate

81.0%

Aggregate P&L

-$24(-36.3%)

Whales

$-11INV $28 · WR 79.7%

$-5INV $14 · WR 87.6%

$-3INV $11 · WR 71.9%

Smart Whale Trades

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