Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$14.1K
281 trades
Smart Whales
30
of 101 traders
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $15.7K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026←
100¢−67¢$14.1K10/20by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026←−67¢100¢
$14.1K10/20
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
10 YESvs20 NO
33%67%
67% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 0% YES by dollars · 0 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $23 is directional: YES $0·NO $23YES Team
Total Invested
$4.2K
Avg Win Rate
67.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$2.2K(+52.4%)
Whales
10
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 71¢·5,212.7 shares
Invested
$3.7K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$1515
+$1515INV $3.7K · WR 67.5%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 32¢·656.5 shares
Invested
$211
Win Rate
67.4%
Position P&L
+$446
+$446INV $211 · WR 67.4%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥉
Entry 54¢·208.1 shares
Invested
$113
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$95
+$95INV $113 · WR 73.2%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 88¢·85.7 shares
Invested
$75
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $75 · WR 68.2%
F
Famous-Moody
Entry 73¢·85.1 shares
Invested
$62
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $62 · WR 66.5%
M
m3t3hedged
Entry 86¢·15 shares·also $3 on NO
Invested
$13
Win Rate
70.9%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $13 · WR 70.9%
N
new-account-test222
Entry 90¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
60.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $9 · WR 60.9%
F
fl9dqwubtwzf
Entry 67¢·8.6 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $6 · WR 70.5%
7
0x774911a3...
Entry 73¢·6.8 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $5 · WR 72.0%
V
Varyag
Entry 0¢·100 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$100
+$100INV $0 · WR 69.0%
NO Team
Total Invested
$955
Avg Win Rate
84.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$951(-99.6%)
Whales
20
D
donthackme🥇
Entry 23¢·957.4 shares
Invested
$223
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-223
$-223INV $223 · WR 87.7%
B
Bigggggggg🥈
Entry 23¢·623 shares
Invested
$141
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-141
$-141INV $141 · WR 85.8%
A
Anon321321🥉
Entry 35¢·380.6 shares
Invested
$133
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-133
$-133INV $133 · WR 86.3%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 38¢·165 shares
Invested
$63
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-63
$-63INV $63 · WR 89.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 42¢·140 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
$-59
$-59INV $59 · WR 72.2%
G
gmgmgmgmg
Entry 34¢·138 shares
Invested
$47
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-47
$-47INV $47 · WR 79.2%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 28¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $46 · WR 85.9%
P
plainfolder
Entry 22¢·206.3 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $46 · WR 86.0%
K
korda77
Entry 78¢·59 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
85.2%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $46 · WR 85.2%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 16¢·168.1 shares
Invested
$26
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-26
$-26INV $26 · WR 88.2%
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