Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$143.6K
2,726 trades
Smart Whales
89
of 521 traders
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $145.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026←
0¢+30¢$143.6K27/62by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026←+30¢0¢
$143.6K27/62
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
25¢−25¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−25¢25¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
27 YESvs62 NO
30%70%
70% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$1.3K
Avg Win Rate
62.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.0K(-77.9%)
Whales
27
S
shelle🥇
Entry 96¢·484.8 shares
Invested
$468
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
$-468
$-468INV $468 · WR 55.2%
R
Roro22◆Proven🥈
Entry 41¢·550.6 shares
Invested
$224
Win Rate
74.9%
Position P&L
$-224
$-224INV $224 · WR 74.9%
L
lranianutd🥉
Entry 99¢·207.4 shares
Invested
$205
Win Rate
58.1%
Position P&L
$-205
$-205INV $205 · WR 58.1%
D
Drunken-Mentat
Entry 5¢·1,968 shares
Invested
$102
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
$-102
$-102INV $102 · WR 75.4%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBillyhedged
Entry 6¢·559.1 shares·also $1.3K on NO
Invested
$32
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
$-32
$-32INV $32 · WR 57.7%
Showing top 5 of 27
NO Team
Total Invested
$7.4K
Avg Win Rate
79.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$23.4K(+316.8%)
Whales
62
R
rated🥇
Entry 33¢·6,134.6 shares
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$4102
+$4102INV $2.0K · WR 87.7%
I
influenz.eth🥈
Entry 12¢·14,079 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$12323
+$12323INV $1.8K · WR 85.8%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥉hedged
Entry 87¢·1,459.2 shares·also $32 on YES
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
+$185
+$185INV $1.3K · WR 57.7%
P
products
Entry 42¢·964.3 shares
Invested
$403
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
+$561
+$561INV $403 · WR 86.6%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 12¢·2,390.8 shares
Invested
$297
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$2094
+$2094INV $297 · WR 87.6%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 46¢·509.3 shares
Invested
$235
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
+$274
+$274INV $235 · WR 83.8%
M
mhdgbfdd
Entry 98¢·215.5 shares
Invested
$212
Win Rate
60.7%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $212 · WR 60.7%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 97¢·151 shares
Invested
$146
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $146 · WR 73.2%
B
bravenewboy
Entry 40¢·333.6 shares
Invested
$132
Win Rate
77.2%
Position P&L
+$202
+$202INV $132 · WR 77.2%
P
paspor
Entry 7¢·1,536.8 shares
Invested
$113
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$1424
+$1424INV $113 · WR 85.8%
Showing top 10 of 62
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