19 days left
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?
YES Price
37¢
37% implied
NO Price
63¢
63% implied
Volume
$5.8K
252 trades
Smart Whales
14
of 82 traders
Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
5 MARKETS · $15.7K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour
3¢−3¢$1.9K0/5Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour−3¢3¢
$1.9K0/5
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours
3¢−3¢$1.1K0/5Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours−3¢3¢
$1.1K0/5
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours
50¢+10¢$4.6K6/4Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours+10¢50¢
$4.6K6/4
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs9 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 56% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 68%· net of hedges
+12 new YES$285+16 new NO$485
$213 of this was bought on both sides by the same 9 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale3 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $29 is directional: YES $16·NO $13YES Team
Total Invested
$839
Avg Win Rate
63.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$348(-41.5%)
Whales
5
Q
QR1🥇hedged
Entry 66¢·1,146.9 shares·also $501 on NO
Invested
$752
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
$-334
$-334INV $752 · WR 62.9%
C
CopyMEyouwillwin🥈hedged
Entry 45¢·130 shares·also $141 on NO
Invested
$59
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
$-11
$-11INV $59 · WR 70.0%
A
Affectionate-Monger🥉
Entry 32¢·50.5 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
79.1%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $16 · WR 79.1%
G
garbagecollect4hedged
Entry 77¢·10 shares·also $3 on NO
Invested
$8
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $8 · WR 68.9%
C
cloverpmq2hedged
Entry 77¢·5 shares·also $2 on NO
Invested
$4
Win Rate
60.1%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $4 · WR 60.1%
NO Team
Total Invested
$725
Avg Win Rate
64.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$91(+12.5%)
Whales
9
Q
QR1🥇hedged
Entry 59¢·846.6 shares·also $752 on YES
Invested
$501
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
+$36
+$36INV $501 · WR 62.9%
C
CopyMEyouwillwin🥈hedged
Entry 59¢·240 shares·also $59 on YES
Invested
$141
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $141 · WR 70.0%
A
Alfabaguera🥉
Entry 39¢·113.6 shares
Invested
$44
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
+$28
+$28INV $44 · WR 60.3%
E
e46m3
Entry 47¢·31.7 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $15 · WR 79.6%
P
PABLOESCOBAR25
Entry 56¢·22.9 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $13 · WR 61.0%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 42¢·10 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $4 · WR 66.8%
G
garbagecollect4hedged
Entry 29¢·10 shares·also $8 on YES
Invested
$3
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $3 · WR 68.9%
C
cloverpmq2hedged
Entry 39¢·5 shares·also $4 on YES
Invested
$2
Win Rate
60.1%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $2 · WR 60.1%
F
fourcoin15m
Entry 39¢·5 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
84.5%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $2 · WR 84.5%
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 499ms