Affectionate-Monger · Polymarket wallet 0xbeef…620e

Wallet snapshot

Affectionate-Monger has made 39,572 trades on Polymarket across 1,156 markets, $260K in volume. Most of it is in politics (16%) and geopolitics (9%). On 1,020 resolved markets the win rate is 74.6%, lifetime P&L -$3,204. It holds 150 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?". Last trade: Nov 8, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?No · $693 · 55¢ → 76¢
• Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?No · $592 · 95¢ → 94¢
• Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes · $406 · 45¢ → 33¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $161 · 71¢ → 92¢
• Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?Yes · $113 · 75¢ → 99¢
• Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes · $112 · 50¢ → 65¢
• Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes · $86 · 87¢ → 90¢
• Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes · $82 · 92¢ → 100¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No · $80 · 90¢ → 97¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes · $75 · 92¢ → 98¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?No · +$0 · Nov 6, 2026
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · +$54 · Nov 6, 2026
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No · +$18 · Nov 6, 2026
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · +$5 · Nov 6, 2026
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No · +$3 · Nov 6, 2026
• Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?No · -$93 · Nov 5, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.