Tech/AI18 days left
Will there be no next Claude Sonnet model release by October 15, 2026?
YES Price
3¢
3% implied
NO Price
97¢
97% implied
Volume
$831
56 trades
Smart Whales
10
of 35 traders
Next Claude Sonnet released on...?
20 MARKETS · $9.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 27, 2026
0¢0¢$3690/6Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 27, 20260¢0¢
$3690/6
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026
53¢−15¢$2.8K3/5Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026−15¢53¢
$2.8K3/5
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026
45¢−25¢$1.7K1/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026−25¢45¢
$1.7K1/4
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 30, 2026
2¢+73¢$933/1Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 30, 2026+73¢2¢
$933/1
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026
1¢+16¢$5501/5Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 1, 2026+16¢1¢
$5501/5
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 2, 2026
1¢+24¢$2161/3Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 2, 2026+24¢1¢
$2161/3
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 3, 2026
2¢+15¢$1351/5Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 3, 2026+15¢2¢
$1351/5
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 4, 2026
3¢+17¢$1371/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 4, 2026+17¢3¢
$1371/4
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 5, 2026
3¢+17¢$1541/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 5, 2026+17¢3¢
$1541/4
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 6, 2026
2¢+15¢$3791/5Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 6, 2026+15¢2¢
$3791/5
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 7, 2026
10¢+65¢$933/1Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 7, 2026+65¢10¢
$933/1
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 8, 2026
4¢+56¢$973/2Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 8, 2026+56¢4¢
$973/2
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 9, 2026
1¢+59¢$933/2Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 9, 2026+59¢1¢
$933/2
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 10, 2026
1¢+19¢$1231/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 10, 2026+19¢1¢
$1231/4
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 11, 2026
1¢+24¢$2081/3Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 11, 2026+24¢1¢
$2081/3
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 12, 2026
1¢+49¢$1902/2Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 12, 2026+49¢1¢
$1902/2
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 13, 2026
3¢+17¢$3421/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 13, 2026+17¢3¢
$3421/4
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 14, 2026
3¢+17¢$4511/4Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on October 14, 2026+17¢3¢
$4511/4
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs7 NO
30%70%
70% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 13% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 98%
+4 new YES$0+3 new NO$25
2 smart whales2 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $41 is directional: YES $5·NO $36YES Team
Total Invested
$6
Avg Win Rate
89.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$3(-45.0%)
Whales
3
NO Team
Total Invested
$97
Avg Win Rate
79.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$109(+111.9%)
Whales
7
B
balthazar🥇
Entry 93¢·38.6 shares
Invested
$36
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $36 · WR 72.0%
N
Nervous-Caterpillar-Rifle🥈
Entry 50¢·37.8 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
80.0%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $19 · WR 80.0%
H
highstake.fund🥉
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $10 · WR 85.7%
N
northdrawer
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $10 · WR 87.5%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $10 · WR 88.1%
W
wish-
Entry 11¢·65 shares
Invested
$7
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
+$56
+$56INV $7 · WR 83.8%
E
e46m3
Entry 50¢·10 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
79.1%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 79.1%
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 725ms