Geopolitics77 days left
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?
YES Price
6¢
6% implied
NO Price
94¢
94% implied
Volume
$1.4K
116 trades
Smart Whales
7
of 45 traders
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
5 MARKETS · $10.0K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31
5¢+6¢$1.6K1/8Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31+6¢5¢
$1.6K1/8
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31
8¢+35¢$2.2K3/4Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31+35¢8¢
$2.2K3/4
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31
5¢+15¢$8891/4Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31+15¢5¢
$8891/4
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
2 YESvs5 NO
29%71%
71% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 89%· net of hedges
+4 new YES$4+2 new NO$25
$2 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $4 is directional: YES $4·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$16
Avg Win Rate
67.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$13(-85.8%)
Whales
2
NO Team
Total Invested
$177
Avg Win Rate
84.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$180(+101.3%)
Whales
5
H
haveagoodday🥇
Entry 50¢·170 shares
Invested
$85
Win Rate
86.5%
Position P&L
+$74
+$74INV $85 · WR 86.5%
E
e46m3🥈
Entry 50¢·120 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$52
+$52INV $60 · WR 79.6%
G
graynotebook19🥉
Entry 41¢·72.3 shares
Invested
$30
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $30 · WR 89.3%
P
plainfolder
Entry 20¢·7 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $1 · WR 86.0%
E
Elias.Thornwellhedged
Entry 9¢·12.1 shares·also $11 on YES
Invested
$1
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $1 · WR 68.2%
Smart Whale Trades
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