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Politics1 days left

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
28¢
28% implied
NO Price
72¢
72% implied
Volume
$1.42M
16,395 trades
Smart Whales
306
of 1,590 traders · 6 on both sides

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

20 MARKETS · $9.15M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

113 YESvs199 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 15% YES by dollars · 77 YES vs 105 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 76%· net of hedges
+55 new YES$33.1K+72 new NO$90.4K
$11.3K of this was bought on both sides by the same 16 buyers — left out of momentum
9 smart whales24 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$153 of $219.7K is hedged across different prices by 6 wallets. True directional: YES $32.3K·NO $187.2K
YES Team
Total Invested
$77.1K
Avg Win Rate
68.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$8.8K(-11.4%)
Whales
113
L
LulaVaiPerder🥇hedged
Entry 76¢·20,152.5 shares·also $5.3K on NO
$-9567INV $15.3K · WR 76.7%
6
65765757🥈hedged
Entry 76¢·17,372.8 shares·also $3.2K on NO
$-8363INV $13.3K · WR 79.1%
F
flawfence🥉
Entry 24¢·33,623.5 shares
+$1665INV $8.0K · WR 55.0%
F
Flipadelphia
Entry 26¢·24,369.3 shares
+$618INV $6.4K · WR 56.9%
G
gambler925
Entry 28¢·12,884.3 shares
+$132INV $3.6K · WR 56.3%
M
mountaindewd
Entry 25¢·8,789.3 shares
+$321INV $2.2K · WR 56.3%
M
mr.oziProven
Entry 25¢·7,500 shares
+$295INV $1.9K · WR 71.3%
B
BiDiFakePolls
Entry 27¢·5,809.6 shares
+$115INV $1.6K · WR 59.7%
T
tunatylerProven
Entry 24¢·5,000 shares
+$223INV $1.2K · WR 58.9%
B
BikesarethebestProven
Entry 28¢·2,181.5 shares
+$10INV $616 · WR 56.1%
Showing top 10 of 113

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 36% YES: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish…