Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$167.5K
3,924 trades
Smart Whales
117
of 783 traders
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $169.1K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026←
100¢−51¢$167.5K57/60by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026←−51¢100¢
$167.5K57/60
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
25¢−25¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−25¢25¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
57 YESvs60 NO
49%51%
51% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$10.6K
Avg Win Rate
72.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$14.0K(+131.4%)
Whales
57
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 50¢·10,798.1 shares
Invested
$5.4K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$5425
+$5425INV $5.4K · WR 67.5%
I
imnice🥈
Entry 25¢·6,928.6 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
+$5184
+$5184INV $1.7K · WR 75.0%
V
Varyag🥉
Entry 50¢·2,372.9 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$1178
+$1178INV $1.2K · WR 69.0%
D
Drunken-Mentat
Entry 28¢·1,086.2 shares
Invested
$303
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$782
+$782INV $303 · WR 75.4%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 25¢·1,141.3 shares
Invested
$291
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$850
+$850INV $291 · WR 73.2%
M
Mytyds81
Entry 66¢·248 shares
Invested
$164
Win Rate
95.2%
Position P&L
+$84
+$84INV $164 · WR 95.2%
S
Sckcgm72
Entry 66¢·243 shares
Invested
$160
Win Rate
95.2%
Position P&L
+$83
+$83INV $160 · WR 95.2%
N
Nswaetno
Entry 66¢·240 shares
Invested
$158
Win Rate
100.0%
Position P&L
+$81
+$81INV $158 · WR 100.0%
Q
Qtse9act
Entry 66¢·237 shares
Invested
$156
Win Rate
95.2%
Position P&L
+$80
+$80INV $156 · WR 95.2%
X
Xatyrgm5
Entry 66¢·235 shares
Invested
$155
Win Rate
95.2%
Position P&L
+$80
+$80INV $155 · WR 95.2%
Showing top 10 of 57
NO Team
Total Invested
$8.1K
Avg Win Rate
83.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.5K(-80.8%)
Whales
60
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 36¢·7,435.6 shares
Invested
$2.6K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-2646
$-2646INV $2.6K · WR 85.8%
D
devoteeOfBeshaba🥈
Entry 30¢·3,706 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-1103
$-1103INV $1.1K · WR 86.2%
M
melchior1248🥉
Entry 43¢·2,472.4 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-1061
$-1061INV $1.1K · WR 69.2%
R
rated
Entry 53¢·1,185.7 shares
Invested
$626
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-626
$-626INV $626 · WR 87.7%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 38¢·1,383.8 shares
Invested
$531
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-530
$-530INV $531 · WR 87.6%
S
Scornful-Conductor
Entry 35¢·694.3 shares
Invested
$241
Win Rate
86.7%
Position P&L
$-241
$-241INV $241 · WR 86.7%
J
jsi3fj2kfwhh923kf
Entry 27¢·400 shares
Invested
$107
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-107
$-107INV $107 · WR 86.3%
A
Anon321321
Entry 30¢·329 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-100
$-100INV $100 · WR 86.3%
Y
yzhaobk-nrt
Entry 29¢·208.8 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
$-60
$-60INV $60 · WR 87.5%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 22¢·240.1 shares
Invested
$54
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $54 · WR 79.6%
Showing top 10 of 60
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