Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$176.2K
2,971 trades
Smart Whales
78
of 680 traders
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $177.9K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026←
100¢−60¢$176.2K31/47by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026←−60¢100¢
$176.2K31/47
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
24¢—$1470/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—24¢
$1470/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
31 YESvs47 NO
40%60%
60% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$14.8K
Avg Win Rate
70.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$18.8K(+127.3%)
Whales
31
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 40¢·27,990.1 shares
Invested
$11.2K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$16792
+$16792INV $11.2K · WR 67.5%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥈
Entry 77¢·2,221.8 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$522
+$522INV $1.7K · WR 73.2%
D
devoteeOfBeshaba🥉
Entry 74¢·2,114 shares
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
+$555
+$555INV $1.6K · WR 86.2%
L
liu-4-steam
Entry 33¢·351.1 shares
Invested
$114
Win Rate
58.6%
Position P&L
+$237
+$237INV $114 · WR 58.6%
M
MrMelonHeadhedged
Entry 10¢·122.5 shares·also $122 on NO
Invested
$13
Win Rate
65.3%
Position P&L
+$110
+$110INV $13 · WR 65.3%
R
regale
Entry 1¢·616.6 shares
Invested
$7
Win Rate
94.7%
Position P&L
+$609
+$609INV $7 · WR 94.7%
Showing top 6 of 31
NO Team
Total Invested
$13.4K
Avg Win Rate
85.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$12.7K(-94.4%)
Whales
47
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 45¢·14,816.1 shares
Invested
$6.6K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-6641
$-6641INV $6.6K · WR 85.8%
R
rated🥈
Entry 41¢·6,135 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-2507
$-2507INV $2.5K · WR 87.7%
P
paspor🥉
Entry 57¢·1,641.1 shares
Invested
$931
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-931
$-931INV $931 · WR 85.8%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 37¢·2,150.3 shares
Invested
$801
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-801
$-801INV $801 · WR 87.6%
R
Roro22◆Proven
Entry 35¢·1,411.7 shares
Invested
$489
Win Rate
74.9%
Position P&L
$-489
$-489INV $489 · WR 74.9%
P
products
Entry 48¢·956.3 shares
Invested
$455
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
$-455
$-455INV $455 · WR 86.6%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 47¢·509.3 shares
Invested
$241
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
$-241
$-241INV $241 · WR 83.8%
A
Anon321321
Entry 87¢·201 shares
Invested
$175
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
$-175
$-175INV $175 · WR 86.3%
B
bravenewboy
Entry 49¢·333.6 shares
Invested
$163
Win Rate
77.2%
Position P&L
$-163
$-163INV $163 · WR 77.2%
M
MrMelonHeadhedged
Entry 100¢·122.5 shares·also $13 on YES
Invested
$122
Win Rate
65.3%
Position P&L
$-122
$-122INV $122 · WR 65.3%
Showing top 10 of 47
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