bismuth · Polymarket wallet 0xf623…bb2c

Wallet snapshot

bismuth has made 1,361 trades on Polymarket across 290 markets, $176K in volume. Most of it is in crypto (29%) and geopolitics (28%). On 267 resolved markets the win rate is 82.8%, lifetime P&L +$1,893. It holds 15 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?". Last trade: Sep 7, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $3,312 · 82¢ → 91¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $1,134 · 86¢ → 95¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No · $963 · 80¢ → 96¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $845 · 79¢ → 85¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No · $676 · 89¢ → 97¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No · $524 · 79¢ → 94¢
• Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?No · $382 · 89¢ → 96¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes · $287 · 70¢ → 96¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · $272 · 39¢ → 54¢
• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No · $196 · 94¢ → 98¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No · +$4 · Oct 5, 2026
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No · +$16 · Oct 5, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No · +$2 · Sep 8, 2026
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No · +$23 · Sep 1, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No · +$23 · Sep 1, 2026
• Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?Yes · +$34 · Aug 28, 2026
• Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.