Watchful-Fund · Polymarket wallet 0xdc83…bcd2

Wallet snapshot

Watchful-Fund has made 1,385 trades on Polymarket across 146 markets, $370K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (30%) and tech (28%). On 118 resolved markets the win rate is 62.7%, lifetime P&L +$6,707. It holds 21 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will GameStop acquire eBay?". Last trade: Oct 14, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will GameStop acquire eBay?No · $5,735 · 94¢ → 93¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No · $1,943 · 94¢ → 97¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Yes · $1,149 · 91¢ → 90¢
• Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No · $876 · 93¢ → 97¢
• Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?No · $817 · 96¢ → 97¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No · $803 · 50¢ → 72¢
• Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?No · $507 · 80¢ → 71¢
• Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Yes · $344 · 81¢ → 90¢
• Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes · $318 · 55¢ → 72¢
• Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?No · $308 · 81¢ → 91¢

Latest closed positions

• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$56 · Oct 13, 2026
• Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes · -$451 · Oct 12, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No · +$22 · Oct 6, 2026
• Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Yes · -$137 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?No · +$11 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes · +$193 · Sep 30, 2026
• Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?

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