AlfredTheShiller · Polymarket wallet 0xcd6b…68f5

+$45,502 lifetime P&L · 58.6% win rate · 1,275 resolved markets · 0xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5

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Wallet snapshot

AlfredTheShiller has made 14,057 trades on Polymarket across 1,355 markets, $1.2M in volume. Most of it is in politics (30%) and geopolitics (25%). On 1,275 resolved markets the win rate is 58.6%, lifetime P&L +$46K. It holds 24 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?". Last trade: Oct 15, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No · $17K · 50¢ → 91¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No · $12K · 81¢ → 96¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes · $4,815 · 55¢ → 54¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes · $1,950 · 10¢ → 20¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No · $1,762 · 69¢ → 71¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · $1,701 · 50¢ → 9¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No · $995 · 84¢ → 99¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No · $900 · 51¢ → 90¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes · $805 · 45¢ → 12¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · $777 · 62¢ → 78¢

Latest closed positions

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes · +$15 · Oct 15, 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · +$8 · Oct 14, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No · +$100 · Oct 14, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · +$330 · Oct 13, 2026
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$50 · Oct 9, 2026
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?Yes · $0 · Oct 1, 2026
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in August?

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