thetafarming · Polymarket wallet 0xb3c3…18aa

Wallet snapshot

thetafarming has made 47 trades on Polymarket across 31 markets, $153 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (64%) and tech (12%). On 23 resolved markets the win rate is 73.9%, lifetime P&L +$6. It holds 7 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 19, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $10 · 86¢ → 88¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $10 · 69¢ → 85¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?No · $10 · 48¢ → 45¢
• Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?No · $8 · 89¢ → 92¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?No · $7 · 40¢ → 25¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?No · $3 · 34¢ → 29¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · $2 · 93¢ → 98¢

Latest closed positions

• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?No · -$2 · Oct 19, 2026
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No · -$2 · Oct 19, 2026
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?No · -$2 · Oct 19, 2026
• Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?No · -$2 · Oct 19, 2026
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No · +$2 · Jun 17, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No · +$4 · Jun 17, 2026
• Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.