Likely-Midnight · Polymarket wallet 0xad6b…f50d

Wallet snapshot

Likely-Midnight has made 2,387 trades on Polymarket across 1,028 markets, $13K in volume. Most of it is in crypto (76%). On 1,018 resolved markets the win rate is 73.2%, lifetime P&L -$15. It holds 5 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?". Last trade: Nov 10, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Yes · $4 · 20¢ → 52¢
• Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Yes · $2 · 18¢ → 29¢
• Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?Yes · $2 · 20¢ → 25¢
• Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes · $0 · 9¢ → 2¢
• Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $0 · 2¢ → 1¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?No · +$2 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 15%-20%?Yes · -$0 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes · -$1 · Nov 4, 2026
• Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?No · +$6 · Nov 2, 2026
• Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 10%-15%?Yes · +$1 · Nov 2, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.