dfer2 · Polymarket wallet 0xa97c…d94a

Wallet snapshot

dfer2 has made 257 trades on Polymarket across 135 markets, $7,395 in volume. Most of it is in politics (30%) and geopolitics (23%). On 96 resolved markets the win rate is 79.2%, lifetime P&L -$1. It holds 16 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?". Last trade: Sep 23, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $12 · 91¢ → 95¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?No · $5 · 96¢ → 97¢
• Iran leadership change by November 30?No · $2 · 93¢ → 95¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No · $2 · 94¢ → 95¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $2 · 87¢ → 84¢
• Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?No · $2 · 93¢ → 86¢
• Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?No · $2 · 95¢ → 84¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · $1 · 81¢ → 98¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $1 · 77¢ → 89¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo · $1 · 65¢ → 72¢

Latest closed positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo · -$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?No · +$1 · Aug 30, 2026
• Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.