Close-Waterbed · Polymarket wallet 0x8046…0a1b

Wallet snapshot

Close-Waterbed has made 1,510 trades on Polymarket across 21 markets, $396K in volume. Most of it is in tech (76%) and politics (14%). On 18 resolved markets the win rate is 77.8%, lifetime P&L +$2,578. It holds 6 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?". Last trade: Jan 27, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · $4,069 · 89¢ → 98¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · $477 · 90¢ → 95¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes · $94 · 11¢ → 2¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?No · $80 · 89¢ → 97¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes · $23 · 9¢ → 5¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes · $2 · 9¢ → 3¢

Latest closed positions

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · -$301 · Jan 27, 2026
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · +$96 · Jan 27, 2026
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?No · +$106 · Jan 27, 2026
• Xi Jinping out in 2025?No · +$2,181 · Jan 1, 2026
• GPT ads by December 31?No · +$31 · Dec 18, 2025
• Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?Yes · +$48 · Dec 18, 2025
• Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?No · +$1,471 · Dec 17, 2025

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.