Valid-Effort · Polymarket wallet 0x3233…dc28

Wallet snapshot

Valid-Effort has made 183 trades on Polymarket across 59 markets, $3,732 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (52%) and politics (21%). On 42 resolved markets the win rate is 61.9%. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "US imports Russian diesel by October 31?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• US imports Russian diesel by October 31?No · $17 · 75¢ → 83¢
• Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Yes · $10 · 50¢ → 52¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes · $9 · 45¢ → 42¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes · $8 · 18¢ → 14¢

Latest closed positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes · +$7 · Oct 10, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes · +$5 · Sep 16, 2026
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes · -$15 · Sep 16, 2026
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · -$7 · Sep 16, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No · +$1 · Sep 9, 2026
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Sep 1, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Sep 1, 2026
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes · -$1 · Aug 21, 2026
• Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?No · +$3 · Aug 1, 2026
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes · +$2 · Jul 14, 2026

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