These-Conflict · Polymarket wallet 0x1589…8194

+$70 lifetime P&L · 84.5% win rate · 58 resolved markets · 0x15898982aeb15bd79856d3e9b981713bb90d8194

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Wallet snapshot

These-Conflict has made 307 trades on Polymarket across 103 markets, $3,007 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (21%) and politics (13%). On 58 resolved markets the win rate is 84.5%, lifetime P&L +$70. It holds 26 open positions right now; the largest is No on "GTA 6 launch postponed again?". Last trade: Oct 11, 2026.

Largest open positions

GTA 6 launch postponed again?No · $56 · 83¢ → 97¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $29 · 49¢ → 47¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · $21 · 83¢ → 87¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes · $21 · 54¢ → 69¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?No · $11 · 77¢ → 86¢
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?No · $11 · 73¢ → 78¢
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberYes · $10 · 93¢ → 96¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No · $10 · 88¢ → 89¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No · $10 · 94¢ → 95¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No · $10 · 93¢ → 94¢

Latest closed positions

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Oct 13, 2026
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No · +$0 · Oct 11, 2026
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$0 · Oct 9, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Yes · +$1 · Oct 8, 2026
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?No · +$0 · Oct 8, 2026
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?No · -$0 · Oct 8, 2026
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

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