Economics75 days left
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
YES Price
56¢
56% implied
NO Price
44¢
44% implied
Volume
$49.7K
860 trades
Smart Whales
48
of 237 traders
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
5 MARKETS · $228.5K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)
3¢+12¢$19.4K6/33Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)+12¢3¢
$19.4K6/33
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)
1¢+16¢$31.6K6/30Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)+16¢1¢
$31.6K6/30
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)←
56¢−35¢$49.7K10/37Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)←−35¢56¢
$49.7K10/37
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
11 YESvs37 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 56¢
YES 23%NO 77%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 56¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 51% YES by dollars · 10 YES vs 3 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 53%· net of hedges
$1.5K
$1.4K
+10 new YES · 2 smart whales+13 new NO
$511 bought on both sides by the same 7 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ3 of 4 on YES
YES 3NO 1one dot = one wallet
3 wallets on YES
1 wallet on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 38h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2.7K is directional: YES $1.4K·NO $1.3KYES Team
Total Invested
$1.4K
Avg Win Rate
57.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.0K(+74.8%)
Whales
11
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥇
Entry 55¢·1,800 shares
Invested
$997
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $997 · WR 57.1%
L
Liquidifier🥈
Entry 13¢·1,587.2 shares
Invested
$199
Win Rate
56.7%
Position P&L
+$694
+$694INV $199 · WR 56.7%
C
conherence🥉
Entry 15¢·585.2 shares
Invested
$89
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
+$233
+$233INV $89 · WR 58.8%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 54¢·57 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
68.1%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $31 · WR 68.1%
G
groth◆Proven
Entry 19¢·164.6 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
63.9%
Position P&L
+$61
+$61INV $31 · WR 63.9%
P
puravida
Entry 36¢·58.8 shares
Invested
$21
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $21 · WR 59.2%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ash
Entry 11¢·26.1 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $3 · WR 60.3%
T
trader-9b779399
Entry 21¢·8.8 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
60.2%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $2 · WR 60.2%
S
sd4f5g67h8j9
Entry 5¢·10 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $1 · WR 88.8%
T
truthteller
Entry 6¢·5.1 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $0 · WR 57.8%
Showing top 10 of 11
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.7K
Avg Win Rate
79.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.5K(-39.4%)
Whales
37
H
HolyMoses7◆Proven🥇
Entry 80¢·1,522 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
78.2%
Position P&L
$-548
$-548INV $1.2K · WR 78.2%
L
Lucerys🥈
Entry 71¢·444.3 shares
Invested
$316
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-121
$-121INV $316 · WR 87.7%
L
lpgb🥉
Entry 92¢·341.2 shares
Invested
$313
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
$-163
$-163INV $313 · WR 72.0%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 92¢·311 shares
Invested
$285
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-149
$-149INV $285 · WR 86.1%
A
anothercoin
Entry 90¢·252.5 shares
Invested
$228
Win Rate
84.6%
Position P&L
$-117
$-117INV $228 · WR 84.6%
E
e46m3
Entry 81¢·129.1 shares
Invested
$104
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-48
$-48INV $104 · WR 79.2%
U
UntitledUser1
Entry 80¢·116.8 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
$-41
$-41INV $94 · WR 66.8%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 95¢·95.1 shares
Invested
$90
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-48
$-48INV $90 · WR 87.7%
P
plainfolder
Entry 79¢·110 shares
Invested
$87
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-39
$-39INV $87 · WR 86.1%
H
haveagoodday
Entry 90¢·92.8 shares
Invested
$83
Win Rate
86.5%
Position P&L
$-42
$-42INV $83 · WR 86.5%
Showing top 10 of 37
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 317ms