Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$185.9K
2,939 trades
Smart Whales
60
of 627 traders
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $187.5K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026←
0¢+30¢$185.9K18/42by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026←+30¢0¢
$185.9K18/42
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
18 YESvs42 NO
30%70%
70% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$6.7K
Avg Win Rate
68.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.6K(-97.9%)
Whales
18
R
russell110320🥇hedged
Entry 64¢·9,375.9 shares·also $431 on NO
Invested
$6.0K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
$-5999
$-5999INV $6.0K · WR 67.5%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥈
Entry 28¢·1,640 shares
Invested
$455
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-455
$-455INV $455 · WR 73.2%
D
Drunken-Mentat🥉hedged
Entry 33¢·201 shares·also $142 on NO
Invested
$66
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
$-66
$-66INV $66 · WR 75.4%
R
Roro22◆Proven
Entry 10¢·517.3 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
74.9%
Position P&L
$-50
$-50INV $50 · WR 74.9%
Showing top 4 of 18
NO Team
Total Invested
$18.1K
Avg Win Rate
85.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$11.9K(+65.4%)
Whales
42
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 61¢·14,891.3 shares
Invested
$9.1K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$5785
+$5785INV $9.1K · WR 85.8%
R
rated🥈
Entry 63¢·6,133.6 shares
Invested
$3.9K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$2240
+$2240INV $3.9K · WR 87.7%
W
wokerjoesleeper🥉
Entry 73¢·2,024.7 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$553
+$553INV $1.5K · WR 87.6%
P
paspor
Entry 63¢·1,637.3 shares
Invested
$1.0K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$611
+$611INV $1.0K · WR 85.8%
P
products
Entry 59¢·993.4 shares
Invested
$585
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
+$409
+$409INV $585 · WR 86.6%
R
russell110320hedged
Entry 26¢·1,639.6 shares·also $6.0K on YES
Invested
$431
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$1209
+$1209INV $431 · WR 67.5%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 59¢·509.3 shares
Invested
$300
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
+$209
+$209INV $300 · WR 83.8%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 60¢·468.8 shares
Invested
$281
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$187
+$187INV $281 · WR 79.6%
F
flow-trader-at-optiver
Entry 80¢·211.3 shares
Invested
$169
Win Rate
81.6%
Position P&L
+$42
+$42INV $169 · WR 81.6%
B
bravenewboy
Entry 44¢·333.6 shares
Invested
$148
Win Rate
77.2%
Position P&L
+$186
+$186INV $148 · WR 77.2%
Showing top 10 of 42
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