Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$401.9K
3,930 trades
Smart Whales
204
of 726 traders
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $403.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026←
0¢+35¢$401.9K72/132by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026←+35¢0¢
$401.9K72/132
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
14¢−14¢$1590/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−14¢14¢
$1590/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
23¢—$00/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—23¢
$00/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$800/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$800/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
72 YESvs132 NO
35%65%
65% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$24.1K
Avg Win Rate
70.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$10.7K(-44.3%)
Whales
72
T
trust-celery🥇hedged
Entry 99¢·2,866 shares·also $11 on NO
Invested
$2.8K
Win Rate
73.9%
Position P&L
$-2845
$-2845INV $2.8K · WR 73.9%
M
mansionki32🥈hedged
Entry 99¢·2,682 shares·also $16 on NO
Invested
$2.7K
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
$-2663
$-2663INV $2.7K · WR 68.2%
A
Average-Call🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·2,164 shares·also $11 on NO
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
$-2146
$-2146INV $2.1K · WR 70.8%
J
jacketkc40hedged
Entry 99¢·1,503 shares·also $8 on NO
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-1490
$-1490INV $1.5K · WR 75.0%
F
fatherSpatialhedged
Entry 99¢·1,500 shares·also $11 on NO
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
$-1489
$-1489INV $1.5K · WR 60.0%
S
same.hair.shorthedged
Entry 1¢·2,183 shares·also $2.2K on NO
Invested
$15
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
$-14
$-14INV $15 · WR 83.3%
M
Milkdonorhedged
Entry 1¢·1,793 shares·also $1.8K on NO
Invested
$11
Win Rate
78.9%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $11 · WR 78.9%
P
publicVoyagehedged
Entry 1¢·1,655 shares·also $1.6K on NO
Invested
$8
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $8 · WR 83.3%
U
unit-armyhedged
Entry 1¢·1,643 shares·also $1.6K on NO
Invested
$8
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $8 · WR 68.8%
A
alley84hedged
Entry 1¢·1,540 shares·also $1.5K on NO
Invested
$8
Win Rate
81.8%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $8 · WR 81.8%
Showing top 10 of 72
NO Team
Total Invested
$44.1K
Avg Win Rate
78.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$33.4K(+75.8%)
Whales
132
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 27¢·18,962.9 shares
Invested
$5.1K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$13883
+$13883INV $5.1K · WR 67.5%
S
same.hair.short🥈hedged
Entry 100¢·2,183 shares·also $15 on YES
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $2.2K · WR 83.3%
I
influenz.eth🥉
Entry 33¢·6,211.7 shares
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$4130
+$4130INV $2.1K · WR 85.8%
M
Milkdonorhedged
Entry 99¢·1,794 shares·also $11 on YES
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
78.9%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $1.8K · WR 78.9%
P
publicVoyagehedged
Entry 99¢·1,655 shares·also $8 on YES
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $1.6K · WR 83.3%
U
unit-armyhedged
Entry 99¢·1,643 shares·also $8 on YES
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $1.6K · WR 68.8%
A
artCandyhedged
Entry 99¢·1,571 shares·also $6 on YES
Invested
$1.6K
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
+$12
+$12INV $1.6K · WR 85.7%
A
abandon.denial.regularhedged
Entry 99¢·1,550 shares·also $6 on YES
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $1.5K · WR 85.0%
A
alley84hedged
Entry 99¢·1,540 shares·also $8 on YES
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
81.8%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $1.5K · WR 81.8%
V
virtual-river-boring
Entry 99¢·1,486 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
78.9%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $1.5K · WR 78.9%
Showing top 10 of 132
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