Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$141.5K
1,394 trades
Smart Whales
54
of 367 traders
December 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $143.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
24¢—$1470/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—24¢
$1470/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
18 YESvs36 NO
33%67%
67% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$7.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.8K(-95.8%)
Whales
18
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 41¢·10,392.5 shares
Invested
$4.2K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
$-4226
$-4226INV $4.2K · WR 67.5%
C
CPU🥈
Entry 29¢·4,576.7 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-1339
$-1339INV $1.3K · WR 64.0%
L
lmueller🥉hedged
Entry 55¢·1,196 shares·also $1.2K on NO
Invested
$656
Win Rate
63.3%
Position P&L
$-656
$-656INV $656 · WR 63.3%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 46¢·962.3 shares
Invested
$443
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-443
$-443INV $443 · WR 73.2%
V
Varyag
Entry 41¢·413 shares
Invested
$169
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
$-169
$-169INV $169 · WR 69.0%
Showing top 5 of 18
NO Team
Total Invested
$10.5K
Avg Win Rate
80.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$12.4K(+117.6%)
Whales
36
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 29¢·8,829 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$6300
+$6300INV $2.5K · WR 85.8%
A
aenews2◆Proven🥈
Entry 100¢·2,076.6 shares
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
74.6%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $2.1K · WR 74.6%
R
rated🥉
Entry 36¢·4,721.4 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$3036
+$3036INV $1.7K · WR 87.7%
L
lmuellerhedged
Entry 493¢·252.2 shares·also $656 on YES
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
63.3%
Position P&L
$-992
$-992INV $1.2K · WR 63.3%
F
flow-trader-at-optiver
Entry 42¢·2,108.5 shares
Invested
$886
Win Rate
81.6%
Position P&L
+$1222
+$1222INV $886 · WR 81.6%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 40¢·1,334.3 shares
Invested
$527
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$807
+$807INV $527 · WR 87.6%
D
devoteeOfBeshaba
Entry 43¢·998.5 shares
Invested
$426
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
+$572
+$572INV $426 · WR 86.2%
D
Drunken-Mentat
Entry 43¢·616.7 shares
Invested
$268
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$349
+$349INV $268 · WR 75.4%
I
itsjustcheddar
Entry 67¢·172.1 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
80.8%
Position P&L
+$57
+$57INV $115 · WR 80.8%
N
NoMoreMister
Entry 29¢·286.8 shares
Invested
$83
Win Rate
88.4%
Position P&L
+$204
+$204INV $83 · WR 88.4%
Showing top 10 of 36
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