Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$142.7K
1,454 trades
Smart Whales
48
of 363 traders
December 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $144.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
14¢−14¢$1590/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−14¢14¢
$1590/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
23¢—$00/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—23¢
$00/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$800/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$800/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
17 YESvs31 NO
35%65%
65% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$19.3K
Avg Win Rate
71.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$10.7K(+55.5%)
Whales
17
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 77¢·12,223.9 shares
Invested
$9.5K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$2768
+$2768INV $9.5K · WR 67.5%
A
aenews2◆Proven🥈
Entry 82¢·8,676.1 shares
Invested
$7.1K
Win Rate
74.6%
Position P&L
+$1550
+$1550INV $7.1K · WR 74.6%
D
devoteeOfBeshaba🥉
Entry 20¢·5,703.5 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
+$4536
+$4536INV $1.2K · WR 86.2%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 23¢·1,772.6 shares
Invested
$401
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$1372
+$1372INV $401 · WR 73.2%
R
Ryxon21hedged
Entry 73¢·115.1 shares·also $74 on NO
Invested
$84
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
+$31
+$31INV $84 · WR 71.3%
V
Varyag
Entry 20¢·355.6 shares
Invested
$72
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$284
+$284INV $72 · WR 69.0%
C
CPUhedged
Entry 6¢·169.3 shares·also $2.5K on NO
Invested
$10
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
+$159
+$159INV $10 · WR 64.0%
Showing top 7 of 17
NO Team
Total Invested
$10.2K
Avg Win Rate
80.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$9.8K(-96.2%)
Whales
31
R
rated🥇
Entry 62¢·4,891.6 shares
Invested
$3.0K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-3044
$-3044INV $3.0K · WR 87.7%
C
CPU🥈hedged
Entry 79¢·3,231.4 shares·also $10 on YES
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-2549
$-2549INV $2.5K · WR 64.0%
I
influenz.eth🥉
Entry 25¢·7,713.3 shares
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-1963
$-1963INV $2.0K · WR 85.8%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 31¢·2,355.8 shares
Invested
$732
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-732
$-732INV $732 · WR 87.6%
F
flow-trader-at-optiver
Entry 24¢·2,471.3 shares
Invested
$595
Win Rate
81.6%
Position P&L
$-595
$-595INV $595 · WR 81.6%
M
MKB
Entry 94¢·162.2 shares
Invested
$153
Win Rate
69.3%
Position P&L
$-153
$-153INV $153 · WR 69.3%
N
NoLoyaltyToTheBosses
Entry 87¢·153 shares
Invested
$133
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-133
$-133INV $133 · WR 85.8%
E
EdwardLewis
Entry 54¢·207.4 shares
Invested
$112
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-112
$-112INV $112 · WR 89.0%
S
shine
Entry 55¢·172.7 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-95
$-95INV $95 · WR 89.3%
M
Medical-Civilisation
Entry 100¢·93.1 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
78.6%
Position P&L
$-94
$-94INV $94 · WR 78.6%
Showing top 10 of 31
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 840ms