Geopolitics19 days left
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$4.1K
228 trades
Smart Whales
17
of 73 traders
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
5 MARKETS · $19.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30
3¢+35¢$2.0K3/5Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30+35¢3¢
$2.0K3/5
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30
41¢+1¢$6.3K5/7Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30+1¢41¢
$6.3K5/7
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30←
1¢+41¢$4.1K5/7Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30←+41¢1¢
$4.1K5/7
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Smart Money Consensus
7 YESvs10 NO
41%59%
59% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 4 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 95%· net of hedges
+6 new YES$14+8 new NO$264
$1 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
0 smart whales4 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $242 is directional: YES $242·NO $1YES Team
Total Invested
$287
Avg Win Rate
69.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$268(-93.2%)
Whales
7
B
balthazar🥇
Entry 20¢·700 shares
Invested
$140
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
$-130
$-130INV $140 · WR 71.9%
R
RememberAmalek🥈
Entry 19¢·426 shares
Invested
$79
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
$-73
$-73INV $79 · WR 65.1%
H
hymolu🥉hedged
Entry 25¢·100 shares·also $74 on NO
Invested
$25
Win Rate
80.0%
Position P&L
$-24
$-24INV $25 · WR 80.0%
W
wert4
Entry 16¢·102.8 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
68.1%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $17 · WR 68.1%
B
BAO95889
Entry 101¢·15 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
56.7%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $15 · WR 56.7%
F
fi5h
Entry 14¢·45 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
61.7%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $6 · WR 61.7%
C
Crousti21hedged
Entry 70¢·7.8 shares·also $1 on NO
Invested
$5
Win Rate
60.9%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $5 · WR 60.9%
NO Team
Total Invested
$280
Avg Win Rate
83.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$197(+70.3%)
Whales
10
Q
quietparcel🥇
Entry 50¢·160 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
+$78
+$78INV $80 · WR 88.8%
H
hymolu🥈hedged
Entry 74¢·100 shares·also $25 on YES
Invested
$74
Win Rate
80.0%
Position P&L
+$25
+$25INV $74 · WR 80.0%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 50¢·105.6 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$51
+$51INV $53 · WR 79.5%
P
PollyForge
Entry 94¢·20 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
84.6%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $19 · WR 84.6%
J
JustClickeverywhere
Entry 90¢·20 shares
Invested
$18
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $18 · WR 79.5%
L
Lucerys
Entry 50¢·30 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $15 · WR 85.9%
L
laptop.recked
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $10 · WR 85.9%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 50¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $10 · WR 88.2%
C
Crousti21hedged
Entry 16¢·7.8 shares·also $5 on YES
Invested
$1
Win Rate
60.9%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $1 · WR 60.9%
G
garbagecollect4
Entry 75¢·1 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
69.6%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $1 · WR 69.6%
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