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Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
87¢
87% implied
NO Price
13¢
13% implied
Volume
$21.9K
766 trades
Smart Whales
34
of 191 traders

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

8 MARKETS · $41.0K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

12 YESvs22 NO
35%65%
65% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 15% YES by dollars · 5 YES vs 4 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 79%· net of hedges
+21 new YES$2.3K+36 new NO$903
$786 of this was bought on both sides by the same 16 buyers — left out of momentum
5 smart whales9 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.5K is directional: YES $224·NO $1.3K
YES Team
Total Invested
$1.0K
Avg Win Rate
72.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$108(+10.3%)
Whales
12
B
balthazar🥇hedged
Entry 80¢·617.2 shares·also $19 on NO
+$44INV $493 · WR 72.0%
M
melchior1248🥈
Entry 83¢·269.5 shares
+$12INV $223 · WR 69.8%
S
SitsToPee🥉
Entry 71¢·246.1 shares
+$26INV $175 · WR 75.6%
D
dearwinNFLhedged
Entry 59¢·75 shares·also $22 on NO
+$21INV $44 · WR 92.1%
H
Hasty-Worker
Entry 85¢·37 shares
+$1INV $31 · WR 60.2%
G
G.Hchen
Entry 63¢·30 shares
+$5INV $19 · WR 57.9%
L
LesterDiamondhedged
Entry 65¢·25 shares·also $8 on NO
+$6INV $16 · WR 87.5%
P
phcrux1
Entry 71¢·18.6 shares
$-5INV $13 · WR 58.0%
S
sweetj
Entry 41¢·30.9 shares
+$0INV $13 · WR 73.4%
E
Esteemed-Conduct
Entry 51¢·10 shares
$-1INV $5 · WR 61.1%
Showing top 10 of 12

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 35% YES: Democrats win exactly 48 House seats…