CS2ESL Challenger League · Playoffs · BO3View on Polymarket RESOLVED · Marsborne

LAG Gaming1-2Marsborne

ESL Challenger League · Playoffs· Sep 30, 2026 · 01:00–04:35 UTC· 3h 35m· VOD on twitch
Volume
$196.1K
Trades
6,046
Significant
16 ≥ $500
Low · high
0.1¢ → 68¢
Price path · full matchYES = LAG Gaming · 1-min VWAP · rings = 6 largest significant trades, one per wallet · tap a ringshaded beyond 5–95¢ = market priced as decided
0¢25¢50¢75¢G1 · LAG GamingG1G2 · MarsborneG2G3 · LAG GamingG30¢ lowmarket priced as decided · 5¢ at 04:11$1.0K NO · 0x0d58…fb04$1.0K YES · wozhendeshiliufej$813 NO · kid817$781 NO · suntori$719 NO · Favorable-Pepper-Brushing$650 NO · TommyLeePeecaSMART94%89% Marsborne01:0004:35 resolved
smart consensus leaned MARS from G1 at 74¢ · 94% → 89%
G1LAG Gaming27¢ → 52¢$17.4K
G2Marsborne52¢ → 35¢$19.1K
G3LAG Gaming35¢ → 0.1¢—
Who entered before the reversalMarsborne last traded ≤ 40¢ at G2 · 43:06 · size and avg entry = whole position on the winner · sorted by realized P&L17 wallets
1pnhkyb0xd2bb…bd8esmart+$130
$5.5K at 66¢· G2 · 25:55· win rate 57.6%
2poshposh0xc4fe…601fbot+$117
$422 at 55¢· G2 · 25:08· win rate 47.5%
3Flaky-Integer0x6e2c…787csmart+$81
$2.4K at 63¢· G2 · 24:48· win rate 62.7%
4topdogbigboi0x5d40…ba95retail+$78
$324 at 58¢· G2 · 25:08· win rate 41.1%
5calculate100xb35f…cf4cretail+$55
$109 at 57¢· G2 · 25:08· win rate 54.2%
6yyyrl0xda77…683fbot+$40
$110 at 58¢· G2 · 25:08· win rate 47.2%
7DegenAcc30x94d2…cfbdretail+$34
$262 at 59¢· G2 · 40:42· win rate 51.8%
8a55330x758d…5d9ebot+$22
$2.2K at 66¢· G2 · 24:48· win rate 34.6%
9GC-U0xeda9…f624retail+$13
$434 at 65¢· G2 · 39:56· win rate 61.7%
$613 at 65¢· G2 · 24:48· win rate 16.3%
Reversal = last time Marsborne traded ≤ 40¢ (G2 · 43:06). Entered = the first fill at that price; size and average entry cover the whole position on the winner, from $100. Realized P&L at resolution · from on-chain fills · past performance does not guarantee future results
Match leadersrealized P&L · this market · 618 wallets
Top winners
frankenstein750x0f0b…f901retail+$950
Zenhack0xff80…9b4dretail+$716
kalluto0x8726…0f36retail+$250
dsdww220xcb5a…724cretail+$238
zilong8880x849c…38c8retail+$216
Top losers
SimpleTony0x52b7…0aa1retail−$930
xqcL0xeecd…4fefretail−$425
legalm0ney0xd385…34fbretail−$262
antec0x8935…7daaretail−$212
xiaoduoxiaoduo0x5511…5734retail−$200
mm / minter (sold more shares than bought — cost outside the book, no P&L shown): Unripe-Shadowbox, TommyLeePeeca, Spanish-Guestbook, dddddd11231 +4
Smart consensus · at resolution131 wallets
89%NO Marsborne · the winner· from 94% at match start
YES capital
$37.5K
NO capital
$81.9K
Hedged
$17.1K
Significant ordersFULL MATCH · 16 TRADES ≥ $500 · FLOOR $500 · LARGEST FIRST
wozhendeshiliufej0x8112…1e6f$1.0K
YES37¢series03:02:27retail
win rate 32.9%lifetime −$14.3K
NO49¢series02:39:36retail
win rate 26.1%lifetime −$5.2K
kid8170xb132…6b5e$813
NO68¢series03:52:24retail
win rate 52.7%lifetime −$196.9K
suntori0xe907…cff6$781
NO54¢series02:37:34whale
win rate 41.2%lifetime −$7.29M
Favorable-Pepper-Brushing0x9e3e…f882$719
sell NO62¢series03:11:24hedgerwhale
win rate 41.8%lifetime −$3.48M
TommyLeePeeca0x0063…2dd2$650
NO94¢series04:09:32smart
win rate 68.9%lifetime +$531.2K
frankenstein750x0f0b…f901$550
NO55¢map 101:11:11retail
win rate 54.5%lifetime +$39.5K
testBruno20xfc23…2f5e$541
NO80¢series03:59:19smart
win rate 70.4%lifetime +$33.1K
Match markets17 MARKETS · CLICK FOR WALLETS AND POSITIONS
LAG Gaming 1-2 Marsborne · ESL Challenger League · match recap | OrcaLayer