CastleRock · Polymarket wallet 0xfb64…eb56

Wallet snapshot

CastleRock has made 1,523 trades on Polymarket across 235 markets, $410K in volume. Most of it is in crypto (58%) and geopolitics (16%). On 216 resolved markets the win rate is 89.4%, lifetime P&L +$7,069. It holds 10 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 11, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $11K · 96¢ → 95¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?No · $7,286 · 93¢ → 97¢
• Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No · $1,947 · 98¢ → 97¢
• 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No · $1,564 · 97¢ → 96¢
• Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?No · $1,023 · 98¢ → 98¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes · $969 · 96¢ → 97¢
• Trump out as President before 2027?No · $480 · 96¢ → 96¢
• Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?No · $134 · 97¢ → 95¢
• Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?No · $77 · 98¢ → 97¢
• Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?No · $27 · 98¢ → 98¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$363 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No · +$28 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No · +$94 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · +$36 · Aug 31, 2026
• Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?No · +$20 · Aug 31, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · -$20 · Aug 31, 2026
• Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

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