Arpayon · Polymarket wallet 0xd5f0…932c

Wallet snapshot

Arpayon has made 2,387 trades on Polymarket across 927 markets, $4,777 in volume. Most of it is in politics (46%) and geopolitics (14%). On 895 resolved markets the win rate is 62.6%, lifetime P&L +$28. It holds 14 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 13, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $26 · 60¢ → 89¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No · $15 · 78¢ → 96¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No · $11 · 82¢ → 99¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · $7 · 91¢ → 98¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · $7 · 88¢ → 96¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No · $4 · 63¢ → 91¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No · $4 · 82¢ → 97¢
• Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Yes · $3 · 4¢ → 13¢
• Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Yes · $2 · 5¢ → 8¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No · $1 · 65¢ → 81¢

Latest closed positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No · +$4 · Oct 6, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No · +$0 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes · +$1 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Sep 11, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No · +$2 · Sep 9, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.