Risto · Polymarket wallet 0xa173…3315

Wallet snapshot

Risto has made 8,480 trades on Polymarket across 446 markets, $1.4M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (30%) and crypto (26%). On 378 resolved markets the win rate is 59%, lifetime P&L +$20K. It holds 23 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $5,746 · 84¢ → 85¢
• Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch?No · $4,763 · 58¢ → 95¢
• Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No · $3,710 · 86¢ → 88¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No · $2,569 · 42¢ → 47¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · $2,453 · 42¢ → 47¢
• Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?No · $1,238 · 78¢ → 83¢
• StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No · $1,079 · 76¢ → 99¢
• Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?No · $895 · 77¢ → 90¢
• Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes · $775 · 54¢ → 59¢
• Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No · $641 · 83¢ → 92¢

Latest closed positions

• Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes · +$45 · Oct 11, 2026
• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes · +$6 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · -$9 · Oct 6, 2026
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?No · +$64 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No · -$2 · Sep 28, 2026
• Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes · -$396 · Sep 27, 2026
• Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.