Naughty-Stake · Polymarket wallet 0x83d8…2478

Wallet snapshot

Naughty-Stake has made 137 trades on Polymarket across 20 markets, $44K in volume. Most of it is in sports (65%) and politics (20%). On 18 resolved markets the win rate is 77.8%, lifetime P&L +$19K. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "US recession by end of 2026?". Last trade: Feb 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

• US recession by end of 2026?No · $2,543 · 77¢ → 93¢
• US recession by end of 2026?Yes · $206 · 24¢ → 8¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No · $78 · 57¢ → 76¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes · $25 · 48¢ → 24¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No · -$7 · Feb 3, 2026
• S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2?Yes · -$312 · Feb 2, 2026
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No · -$45 · Feb 1, 2026
• Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes · +$0 · Jan 31, 2026
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No · -$30 · Jan 31, 2026
• Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No · +$4 · Jan 31, 2026
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes · $0 · Jan 31, 2026
• No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes · +$80 · Jan 29, 2026
• US recession by end of 2026?No · -$74 · Jan 26, 2026
• UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)No · +$915 · Jan 25, 2026

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